Coalition forces, national guardsmen and party political leaders in IRAQ have suffered a week of violence, assassinations and political uncertainty, with their landmark election fast approaching.
Iraqi rebels have taken their battle to the centre of IRAQ’s political and security systems, assassinating BAGHDAD’s governor and killing dozens of American and Iraqi soldiers.
But despite the mounting insurgent carnage in the country, the UNITED STATES’ President (mr) GEORGE W. BUSH continues to insist the January the 30th elections will go ahead.
And his Defence Secretary, (mr) DONALD RUMSFELD, says holding free democratic elections will send an important message to the insurgents.
F263-a RUMSFELD 25 secs
We must do what it takes in Iraq. We cannot allow those who chop off people’s heads to take control of a country. When people are liberated, and when they have a chance to choose a life of freedom, and to have governments that they guide and direct, they’re far less likely to support terror and they’re still less likely to be attracted by the lies of the extremists or to be intimidated by extremists.
In IRAQ itself though there are fresh signs of divisions, the Iraqi President (mr) GHAZI YAWAR, the government’s senior Sunni official, is urging the coalition to look again at whether IRAQ should hold the polls as scheduled.
Mr YAWAR is concerned they will fail if a fierce insurgency keeps away a significant number of Sunnis.
U-S and Iraqi officials are worried that if Sunnis fail to turn out at the polls, a wedge will be driven between the community and the new political order, strengthening the insurgency and fueling more violence.
The Director of the ASIA-PACIFIC College of Diplomacy, (mr) Dr WILLIAM MALEY, says this is exactly the type of disruption the insurgency is hoping for.
He says IRAQ’s sizeable Sunni minority, whose many political and religious leaders are calling for a delay or boycott of the vote, have to be involved for the election to be legitimate.
F263-b MALEY 30 secs
There’s a lot of pressure for both the Kurdish and the Shiite elements of the Iraqi population to participate in the vote, irrespective of the security threats that might arise. My suspicion is that we might see quite a high turnout from those particular groups. But if the security situation within Sunni areas is so poor that the turnout amongst Sunni Muslims is low then the Assembly won’t be able to claim to be representative of all the different groups within Iraqi society and that will then compromise the legitimacy of a new constitutional document.
According to an internal U-S State Department poll, only 32 per cent of Sunnis are “very likely” to vote, and 88 per cent say they will stay away from the polls if they fear attacks.
A U-S official says the findings are “not surprising”, but says efforts will continue to encourage the participation of Sunnis, who enjoyed power until U-S troops toppled (mr) SADDAM HUSSEIN’s regime in 2003.
Dr MALEY believes the situation in IRAQ is approaching a turning point.
F263-c MALEY 27 secs
It’s really a *catch-22 situation. The holding of an election in a security situation as dire as this is one kind of risk — that the result may be a **bloodbath and an Assembly that lacks legitimacy in the eyes of a significant element of the Iraqi population. On the other hand, the postponement of the election would be an affront to the Shiite Muslim parties, and particularly the 65 per cent Shiite majority within the Iraqi population.
IRAQ’s Shiite majority, oppressed under SADDAM, wants the election to cement its newfound political dominance.
But all sides are very aware that all of IRAQ’s ethnic and religious groups must take part in the election.
The violence of the past week though is just a taste of the bitter divisions expected in the run-up to the vote on January the 30th.
In MOSUL, (mr) OMAR MAHMOUD ABDALLAH, a leading Sunni politician, was shot dead.
His Iraqi Islamic Party has pulled out of the election, fearing persistent bloodshed will deter voters in the Sunni north and west, and skew the result.
The fledgling Iraqi security forces have lost more than 100 personnel since the new year.
And the latest attacks against U-S forces have seen the largest number of U-S troops killed in a single attack since last month’s mess hall bombing.
Even foreign election observers are fleeing the vote, saying they will monitor the election from JORDAN because of security concerns.
Dr MALEY, who recently visited AFGHANISTAN in the run-up to their election, says you can not monitor an election in that way.
F263-d MALEY 24 secs
I don’t think its feasible in the sense in which serious electoral observation would be carried out. But I think the security situation in Iraq is so dire at the moment that it would be very difficult to induce key member states within the UN system, or even key allies of the United States, to put highly-trained, skilled professional election observers into as dangerous a situation is that.
In a defensive move, the Iraqi Prime Minister (mr) IYAD ALLAWI has extended emergency laws for 30 days in a bid to stop the intimidation of voters, set to choose their 275-seat parliament.
But given the ongoing security concerns, Dr MALEY sees little hope in the election stemming the bloodshed.
F263-e MALEY 24 secs
At some point the names of the victorious candidates will need to be made public. And they will all need protection. We’ve seen the assassination of the governor of Baghdad, we saw last year the assassination of the chair of the governing council in May 2003. Being politically prominent in Iraq is a risky undertaking at the moment and it will be necessary to do a lot of preparation before one could bring these delegates together.
